Kognitive Dissonanz

Beim Lesen des grossartigen Buches «Selbst Denken» von Harald Welzer, bin ich wieder auf den Begriff «Kognitive Dissonanz» gestossen. Um es gleich auf den Punkt zu bringen: Die beiden Aussagen «Wir brauchen Wirtschaftswachstum» und «die Wirtschaft macht den Planeten kaputt» stellen eine typische kognitive Dissonanz dar. Kein Mensch ist fähig, mit diesen beiden Gedanken im Kopf glücklich zu leben. Denn daraus leitet sich der Zwang ab, im Interesse der Wirtschaft die Zukunft der eigenen Kinder zerstören zu müssen.

Unser Bedürfnis, diesen gefühlsmässigen Knoten zu lösen, ist stärker als die Rationalität. Einige umgehen das Problem, indem sie einfach die Klimaerwärmung leugnen. Sie nehmen kontrafaktisch an, dass die Wirtschaft der Umwelt nicht schadet. Die dafür erforderliche Ignoranz ist ein kleiner Preis für die Beruhigung des Gewissens.

Ein viel grösserer Teil der Bevölkerung setzt auf das Prinzip Hoffnung. Sie geben zwar zu, dass wir momentan ein Problem haben, sind aber zuversichtlich, dass eine Entkopplung von Wirtschaftsleistung und ökologischem Fußabdruck durch neue Technologie möglich sein wird. Deshalb ist das Diagramm unten so wichtig.

Siehe auch https://nordborg.ch/2018/08/12/sustainable-growth-is-an-oxymoron

Die roten Kurven zeigen die historischen globalen CO2-Emissionen (durchgezogen) und die Entwicklung, die gemäss IPCC für weniger als 1.5°C Erwärmung erforderlich wäre (gestrichelt). Die blauen Kurven zeigen die historische globale Wirtschaftsleistung (durchgezogen) und die Erwartungen der G20-Staaten (gestrichelt). Menschen, die eine solche Entwicklung für möglich halten, hoffen offensichtlich auf ein Wunder.

Es gibt aber eine einfachere Möglichkeit, die oben erwähnte kognitive Dissonanz aufzulösen. Denn selbstverständlich brauchen wir kein Wirtschaftswachstum! Das Ziel einer Volkswirtschaft ist doch, die Bedürfnisse der Menschen zu stillen, statt Konsumsucht zu fördern. Ich kann doch nicht jedes Jahr 2-3% mehr essen und es macht keinen Sinn, mehr Schuhe zu produzieren als es Füsse gibt. Da die Menschen der Industrienationen sogar in Überfluss leben, wäre es auch kein Problem, die Wirtschaftsleistung zu senken.

Die vermeintliche Notwendigkeit des Wirtschaftswachstums kommt daher, dass Kapitaleinkommen im Verhältnis zur Arbeit immer wichtiger wird, wie Piketty eindrücklich festgehalten hat. Kapitaleinkommen fordert eine Zunahme der Geldmenge, die es nur in einer wachsenden Wirtschaft geben kann. Der britische Ökonom Jason Hickel hat es so formuliert: «Wir sind bereit alles zu riskieren – buchstäblich alles – um die Reichen reicher zu machen». Wie kann es sein, dass heute 8 Menschen mehr besitzen als die ärmste Hälfte der Weltbevölkerung? Sicher nicht durch harte Arbeit.

Jason Hickel on Twitter

Der Satz «die Wirtschaft muss wachsen» ist somit keine faktenbasierte Aussage, sondern ein Befehl. Um ein Infragestellen dieses Imperativs zu verhindern, wird keine Mühe gescheut. Täglich werden wir mit Wirtschaftszahlen und Börsenkursen bombardiert, welche belegen sollen, dass uns die Finanzgötter gnädig sind, weil wir bereit waren, das nötige Opfer zu erbringen. Der unsichtbare Gott ist durch die unsichtbare Hand des Marktes ersetzt worden, aber die profitmachende Angst ist die gleiche.

Es erstaunt mich immer wieder, dass die meisten Menschen in der heutigen Gesellschaft nicht mal verstehen, was Geld ist. Hier ein kleiner Test, ob Sie es verstanden haben:

Nehmen wir an, dass ein Goldgräber in die Berge geht und ein grösseres Stück Gold findet. Wir sind uns vermutlich einig, dass er dadurch reich geworden ist. Nach der Rückkehr in die Heimat kann er für das Gold Champagner, Kaviar und teure Kleider kaufen. Warum? Welchen volkswirtschaftlichen Beitrag hat er geleistet, der so fürstlich entlöhnt werden muss? Schliesslich war ja der Goldklumpen vor ihm da und er hat ihn nur aufgehoben. Überlegen Sie sich. Es gibt eine einfache und eindeutige Antwort auf diese Frage am Ende des Artikels.

Patrick Chappatte — http://www.chappatte.com

Aus meiner Sicht ist die Aussage «die Wirtschaft muss wachsen» nicht nur offensichtlich falsch, sondern er sollte sogar verboten werden. Denn damit werden Menschen in einen Zustand der kognitiven Dissonanz versetz, der sie sehr unglücklich macht. Sie schuften sich zu Tode, vernachlässigen die Kinder und stehen unter permanentem Leistungsdruck, damit das Bruttoinlandprodukt irgendwie ansteigt. Was wäre, wenn wir alle gleichzeitig aus dem Hamsterrad aussteigen würden? Die Aktien- und Finanzmärkte würden einbrechen, aber das ist mir ehrlich gesagt egal. Dafür kann ich etwas länger schlafen und gemütlich mit meiner Familie frühstücken.

Lösung des Rätsels: Durch das Finden des Goldklumpens, nimmt die verfügbare Goldmenge zu. Da Gold als Tauschmittel eingesetzt wird, gibt es jetzt mehr Gold, um das Gleiche zu kaufen. Dadurch werden die Goldersparnisse aller Menschen weniger wert. Der Goldgräber kann mehr kaufen, weil alle andere weniger kaufen können. Oder anders gesagt, er hat das Geld der anderen gestohlen. Dies ist ein Systemfehler, genauso wie Kryptowährungen keinen erkennbaren Nutzen haben.

Global Climate Compensation

Deutsche Version (English translation below)

Können wir die Klimakrise bewältigen? Die Antwort lautet ja, und es würde etwa $1.30 pro Kopf und Tag kosten. Dies ist weniger als eine Tasse Kaffee.

Das Problem ist nur, dass sich nicht alle Menschen auf der Welt so viel Geld haben. Die Wohlhabenderen müssen also bereit sein, den Ärmeren zu helfen.

Fast 30 Jahre nach der Unterzeichnung der Klimakonvention der Vereinten Nationen (UNFCCC) gibt es immer noch keinen praktikablen Plan, wie die Erderwärmung auf weniger als +2°C begrenzt werden kann, und die CO2-Konzentration der Atmosphäre steigt immer schneller an. Zusammen mit einigen Kollegen versuche ich deshalb einen Plan auszuarbeiten, um das Problem im Griff zu bekommen. Die Details dazu finden Sie hier: www.global-climate-compensation.org.

Ich meine dies ernst. Das CO2-Budget für +1.5°C Erderwärmung werden wir in weniger als 8 Jahren ausgeschöpft haben. Die Weichenstellung für eine bessere Zukunft muss also in den nächste 1-2 Jahren passieren. Nach COP25 in Paris und der Rede von Donald J. Trump in Davos bin ich der Meinung, dass die Reichen und Mächtigen versagt haben.

Melden Sie sich also bei mir, wenn sie an der Idee der globalen Klimakompensation mitarbeiten wollen. Das Problem können wir nur gemeinsam lösen. Das erste Treffen findet am 31. Januar 2020 in Zürich statt.

English Version

Can we overcome the climate crisis? The answer is yes, and it would cost about $1.30 per person per day. This is less than a cup of coffee.

The only problem is that not everyone in the world has that amount of money. The affluent must be willing to help the poor.

Almost 30 years after the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there is still no workable plan to limit global warming to less than +2°C and the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is rising faster than ever. Together with some colleagues, I am therefore trying to work out a plan to get the problem under control. You can find the details here: www.global-climate-compensation.org.

I’m serious about this. We will have exhausted the CO2 budget for +1.5°C global warming in less than 8 years. The course for a better future must therefore be set in the next 1-2 years. After COP25 in Madrid and Donald J. Trump’s speech in Davos, I believe that the rich and powerful have failed.

So, get in touch with me if you want to work on the idea of global climate compensation. We can only solve the problem together. The first meeting will be in Zurich on January 31, 2020.

Let’s Solve the Climate Crisis in 2020

In order to stop climate change, we need to call on less than 300 companies to compensate their carbon emissions. Somehow, this does not seem impossible.

By Henrik Nordborg
Zurich, 2019-12-29

The American historian Barbara W. Tuchmann begins her book The March of Folly with the following observation:

A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity. In this sphere, wisdom, which may be defined as the exercise of judgment acting on experience, common sense and available information, is less operative and more frustrated than it should be. Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests? Why does intelligent mental process seem so often not to function?

Tuchman, Barbara W., The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam.

She goes on to describe a number of examples of governments acting stupidly, even though they had all the information required for rational decisions. The book, which was published in 1984, only covers events up to the Vietnam war. Looking at the world today, we could easily add many more examples governmental madness. The question is only whether there will be anyone left to read them.

It is now obvious that humanity has failed to react to the threat of climate change and that we still do not have the faintest idea how to solve the problem. Both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement have failed to produce any tangible results and we are rapidly running out of time. The most recent reports by climate scientists indicate that we are close to reaching important tipping points, which would make climate change irreversible. On the other hand, greenhouse gas emissions are higher than ever before and are still increasing. Humanity is accelerating towards the precipice.

Given that we have less than ten years of carbon budget left at current emission rates, one could argue that we have already passed the political point of no return. Staying below 1.5°C of warming would require cutting global CO2 emissions by at least 7.6% annually, starting right now. There is zero probability of this happening as a result of international climate talks. In other words, humanity has about as much chance of surviving the 21st century as the proverbial snowball in hell.

It does not have to be like this. Most carbon emissions (carbon dioxide and methane) result from the activities of a small number of fossil fuel producers. Requiring them to compensate all the emissions resulting from the fuel they use and sell will introduce a global price on carbon emissions, incentivizing people to use less fossil fuel and to invest in alternatives. Do we want to force a couple of hundred companies to pay up, or do we accept the end of life as we know it? We only have a few years left to decide.

Global Climate Compensation

The simple truth is that we need to stop using fossil fuel as quickly as possible. In a market-based economy, this is most easily achieved by introducing a high and increasing price on carbon emissions globally. The only problem is that poor people cannot afford higher energy prices, which is why carbon prizing must be coupled to a financial redistribution scheme to be socially acceptable. One way to achieve all this is the following scheme for Global Carbon Compensation:

  1. All producers of fossil fuel pay a fee proportional to their production to a global fund.
  2. The money from the fund is distributed among the world’s nations on a per capita basis.
  3. The carbon price increases with time and with the carbon concentration in the atmosphere.

For simplicity, we can consider a price of 100 USD per ton of carbon dioxide to start with. With current emissions of approximately 37 Gt CO2 per year, the fund will receive 3.7 trillion USD annually. This is a lot of money but still less than the 5.2 trillion USD of annual subsidies given to the fossil fuel sector according the IMF. Every nation will receive a sum corresponding to approximately USD 480 per capita. This is a significant amount of money for many developing countries in the world. Thus, countries with a small carbon footprint will benefit and those with a high footprint will suffer.

A carbon price of 100 USD/t is not enough to decarbonize the world economy, but it will have significant impact. Here are some examples of price increases based on carbon emissions:

  1. Electricity from coal-fired power plants: 8 cents/kWh
  2. Gasoline: 24 cents/liter or 92 cents/gallon
  3. Barrel of oil: 40 USD
  4. Flying from London to New York and back: 180 USD economy, 340 USD business class.

Why this makes sense

In order to burn one ton of carbon, we need to add 2.67 tons of oxygen to produce 3.67 tons of carbon dioxide. Without this oxygen and the right to emit the resulting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, carbon-based fuels would be worthless. In other words, the business models of the fossil fuel companies depend on their right to destroy the atmosphere. There is no reason for why they should not pay for this right. In other words, the carbon footprint of a fossil fuel company consists of the direct emissions and all the carbon sold.

Fortunately, there are fewer than 300 significant fossil fuel companies in the world and we know exactly how much carbon they produce. We do not question their right to do business or to be profitable, but they must pay for their use of the atmosphere, which belongs to all of us. Obviously, they will react by increasing the price of fuel, thereby passing on the higher costs to their customers. The effect will be similar to that of a global carbon tax, but with fossil fuel producers and not the governments raising prices. This is an important distinction. The price of fossil fuel depends on many factors, such as the production cost, the carbon prize, and the profits of the producers. Today, fossil fuel companies are highly profitable, and their profits are paid for by consumers everywhere. Anyone arguing that access to cheap fossil fuel is important to society, needs to explain why the profit-making of the oil companies is tolerated. They can’t have it both ways. If these companies are required to pay climate compensation, the cost would be split between their shareholders and their customers.

Just as it is very efficient to implement the carbon prize directly at the source, it makes sense to use national governments to distribute the money from the fund. This has the additional benefit of not violating national sovereignty. Every government will receive a large sum of money, which it can use as it sees fit. Since fossil fuel prices will increase significantly, it will be wise to use the money for investments in renewable energy and to protect the weakest in society from the effects of rising living costs. In developing countries, it will be possible to do a lot more than that. After all, giving everyone in the Global South a universal basic income of 40 USD per month would change a lot of things.

Global Climate Compensation will transfer large sums of money from countries with a high per capita carbon footprint to countries using less resources. This is both necessary – in order to avoid an unprecedented refugee crisis and human suffering – and fair. After all, the industrialized nations do not have to pay for their historic emissions and the damage they have caused in the past. Furthermore, contributing to the fund is voluntary, as nobody is obliged to use fossil fuel. A significant increase in the price of fossil fuel will automatically lead to a reduction in demand, meaning that the figure of 3.7 trillion USD given above is probably far too high. Energy efficient countries will benefit from the GCC, regardless of their wealth and average income. The scheme therefore does not punish rich and developed countries but inefficient ones. The fund could be managed by the United Nations, which would give a badly needed boost to international collaboration without the need to establish yet another organization, but this is not necessary. The general rule is to simply pay out the money to countries based on the size of their population and not to interfere in national politics. However, a country behaving badly could be black-listed and lose its right to receive payments from the fund.

It also makes sense to couple the emission price to the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere in order to prevent a massive sell-off of fossil fuel. As soon as it becomes clear that the price of carbon will increase, fossil fuel producers will have strong incentive to sell as much as possible as quickly as possible. With a cleverly implemented carbon prize, this sell-off would simply make the prize increase even faster.

Is it possible to decarbonize the economy without sacrificing economic growth? Global Carbon Compensation is the only way to find out. If the proponents of technological solutions are right, the introduction of global carbon prizing will simply lead to a rapid decarbonization of the economy. If not, carbon emissions will sink anyway, but mainly through reduced consumption and sufficiency.

It is very difficult to find an argument against GCC which is not based on simple greed or selfishness. The principle that carbon emissions should cost the same everywhere makes a lot of sense. Likewise, it is easy to accept the idea that all humans have the same right to the oxygen in the atmosphere. Implementing this plan through fossil fuel companies and national government means that less than 500 parties need to be involved in working out the details. Furthermore, it the plan does not even need political approval, as there is no law preventing private companies from making donations to a fund run by the UN even today.

How to make it happen

How realistic is this plan for Global Carbon Compensation? Obviously, the usual suspects like the fossil fuel industry and the governments of oil-producing nations will be vehemently opposed to it. The real question is therefore how many of us are prepared to oppose them.

The idea behind GCC is to give the fossil fuel producers a fair chance to show that they are willing to be part of solving the climate crisis. If they agree, they can start contributing to the fund immediately. If not, they have officially declared themselves enemies of humanity and lost all rights to exist. We will go after the companies, their owners, and their employees in every way possible, including government sanctions, legal actions, and activism. A company producing fossil fuel but refusing to pay GCC will be considered the moral equivalent of drug cartel but will find it a bit more difficult to hide. Owning shares in or working for a fossil fuel company not participating in GCC will be considered a crime against humanity. Governments and major corporations will only buy fossil fuel from corporations participating in GCC.

The time has come to get serious about solving the climate crisis. It will involve an unprecedented level of international collaboration and the transfer of financial resources from rich countries to poorer ones. Global Climate Compensation accomplishes this with a minimum amount of bureaucracy and government intervention and the plan could be implemented immediately. It will not solve all problems, but it is our best chance addressing climate change.

Are we going to allow a small number of fossil fuel producers to kill our children? If not, we’d better start acting now. So let’s demand Global Climate Compensation as soon as possible. There are less then 300 fossil fuel companies and millions of us, so it should not be too difficult.


Update 2020-01-25

Apparently, the CEOs of the oil companies are already discussing reducing their emissions because of the social pressure:

Public lecture in Zurich

I am looking forward to my next lecture at the ETH in Zürich, organized by the Swiss Chapter of the IEEE Society on Social Implications of Technology (SSIT). It will be similar to the lecture I gave at Hilti a couple of weeks ago, with some recent updates.

Where: ETH Zurich
When: 2019-11-27 18:30 – 20:00
Admission free.
Registration and further details:
https://nordborg.eventbrite.com

Here is the flyer as PDF: SSIT-flyer.pdf. Please feel free to distribute.

Aufruf zum Konsumstreik

Mein Interview und Aufruf zum Konsumstreik in 20min haben einige (mehrheitlich positive) Reaktionen ausgelöst. Danke für die Unterstützung und die interessanten Inputs. Hier der Link zum Text: Klima-Professor ruft zu Konsumstreik auf

Kleine Klarstellung: Ich bin natürlich kein Klimaforscher sondern ein theoretischer Physiker, der sich für Klimaschutz und Energietechnik interessiert. Dafür war ich 10 Jahre lang in der Privatwirtschaft tätig und verstehe wie global tätige Unternehmen funktionieren. Ich habe bewusst diese Laufbahn gewählt, da wir schon genug über das Klima wissen. Jetzt geht es darum, Lösungen zu finden.

Einige Wortmeldungen im Internet haben wieder gezeigt, wie viel Unwissen in der Gesellschaft vorhanden ist. Vielleicht sind folgende Links nützlich, um etwas Klarheit zu schaffen:

Die Zeit hat ein gutes Video mit Stefan Rahmstorf über die Konsequenzen des Nichthandelns veröffentlicht: Was, wenn wir nichts tun?

Mein Artikel auf higgs.ch fasst unsere Probleme auch recht gut zusammen: Was müssen wir noch wissen?

Update: Deutschlands führende Ökonomen fordern Konsumverzicht. Ich bin also in guter Gesellschaft.